汶川大地震在十个月前被预见

通过美国国家地理杂志记者Kevin Holden Platt 即将发表的一篇文章,我了解到这次地震在去年7月的一份学术论文中被预报过。论文的主要作者是Alex Densmore (Durham University, UK) 和Mike Ellis (British Geological Survey), 论文题目是Active tectonics of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults at the eastern margin of the Tibetan.
(下载地址:http://www.geography.dur.ac.uk/documents/densmore/densmore_etal07.pdf)
文中有大量的研究分析图片。我不是地质专家,不能完全看懂。结论似乎有两点:
1)西藏高原东部边缘正在发生快速的新生代岩层的“冷却”和“溶蚀“,但是矛盾的是还看不到大规模的(地壳)收缩(The steep, high-relief eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau has undergone rapid Cenozoic cooling and denudation yet shows little evidence for large-magnitude shortening or accommodation generation in the foreland basin.)
2)与西藏东部平行的断层的活跃将导致在四川盆地高密度居住区的重大的地震灾害发生(activity on the margin-parallel faults in eastern Tibet may represent a significant seismic hazard to the densely populated Sichuan Basin.)

值得注意的一点是,这篇论文也是中国自然科学基金会支持的研究项目,编号是49802013。成都科技大学有参与,提到的人有Li Bing, Si Guanying, Wang Mo, and Zhang Yi 等。

论文结尾说到,从北川到Pengguan的断裂带长到足够产生强烈的地表地震,将给区域带来潜在的严重破坏。(The fault are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard.)

以下图片出自该论文:
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